About 90% of the global indexes I follow are in downtrends on the daily charts. (Ones that are not include Brazil and Canada). Only 50% of the world indexes I watch are in downtrends on the weekly charts.
Of US indexes, The DJTransports are still in an uptrend on both the daily and weekly charts. The Nazdaq has been in a downtrend on the daily charts but the weekly charts have not given a trend reversal from up to down yet.
The Dow, SP, Russell have had well defined downtrends on both the daily and the weekly time frames. Currently, the weekly charts are correcting an oversold condition which should lead to further upside. However, it would take an incredible amount of work to turn the daily time frames, as well as the weekly time frames from downtrends to uptrends. That is unlikely to happen in the next few months, so on these indexes at least, you are still looking at a corrective rally in terms of structure.
Several weeks ago, we saw the Russell become the relative strength leader across global indexes for the first time in many months! Of course, relative strength is a function of look back period. I use shorter look back periods as opposed to longer ones. I think that there is a growing perception that the dollar has put in a decent bottom. For the first time in many many months, the dollar index gave a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend that was confirmed today. The huge Macro Global players are grossly underweighted in dollar denominated securities. The driver for a bit better upside rally has been coming from foreign money flows coming into big caps (undervalued relative to the small caps) to take advantage of the currrency play.
So far, I see selective buying only - stuff like drugs, biotechs, McDonalds, and Naz shares. Overly bearish sentiment readings can still add a bit of fuel to the fire.
I am not a believer in forcasting how far a market can go. You can have a structure that says that the market can rally, but money flows are a very tough thing to guage in advance. If enough foreign money comes in, assuming that the perception is that the dollar can have a good run to the upside, there is no reason why these SPs can't pop another 50- 70 points from here.
However, the nature of that rally would still be corrective. And, you can lead a horse to water but you can't force him to drink, meaning ...volume is the number one thing that a technician falls back on to confirm whether or not there are truly any decent money flows. Watch to see what type of volume comes in over the next week. Naz has already had a clean upside breakout. So - that is my two cents worth - the market can still have upside potential from here, but much of it is coming from rotation, which never supports a sustainable long term rally.