Frank's Commentary

22 Feb

Good morning for 2-23

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be weekly Jobless Claims, expected +6K to 354K, at 9:00 will be the Dec. FHFA Home Price Index, last at +1.0%, at 9:30 will be the weekly nat gas stocks from the EIA, expected -158bcf, at 10:00 will be the weekly energy stocks from the EIA, crude expected -500K, gasoline expected -1.0M, distillates expected -1.2M, and the KC Fed Index, last at 7. The Treasury will auction 29B in 7 yr. notes with results at 12:00.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLJ	TYH
23-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1364.00	1783.40	13268	63950	10672	131 3/32
Low	1353.00	1750.70	13212	62575	10561	130 12/32
Close	1356.00	1771.30	13245	63825	10628	131 1/32

Resist	1381.8	1836.3	13359	66175	10852	132 8/32
Resist	1375.0	1816.1	13324	65325	10783	131 26/32
Resist	1370.8	1803.6	13303	64800	10741	131 17/32
Resist**	1368.7	1801.2	13298	64825	10731	131 18/32
Resist	1362.3	1786.2	13271	64325	10680	131 9/32
Pivot	1357.7	1768.5	13242	63450	10620	130 27/32
Mid Point*	-1358.5	-1767.1	-13240	-63263	-10617	-130 24/32
Support	1351.3	1753.5	13215	62950	10569	130 18/32
Support**	1346.7	1735.8	13186	62075	10509	130 4/32
Support	1346.2	1730.5	13177	61725	10492	129 30/32
Support	1342.0	1718.0	13156	61200	10450	129 21/32
Support	1335.2	1697.8	13121	60350	10381	129 7/32

21 Feb

Good morning for 2-22

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 9:00 will be Jan. Existing Home Sales, expected +1.7% to 4.65M from 4.61M. The Treasury will auction 35B in 5 yr. notes with results at 12:00.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLJ	TYH
22-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1369.50	1761.60	13295	64500	10648	130 27/32
Low	1355.75	1727.00	13182	62525	10461	130 12/32
Close	1360.00	1758.50	13247	62950	10625	130 20/32

Resist	1391.7	1817.6	13478	67696	10951	131 19/32
Resist	1383.3	1796.2	13408	66475	10835	131 10/32
Resist	1378.0	1783.0	13365	65721	10764	131 4/32
Resist**	1375.5	1783.6	13354	65300	10765	131 3/32
Resist	1367.8	1771.1	13301	64125	10695	130 27/32
Pivot	1361.8	1749.0	13241	63325	10578	130 20/32
Mid Point*	-1362.6	-1744.3	-13239	-63513	-10555	-130 20/32
Support	1354.0	1736.5	13188	62150	10508	130 12/32
Support**	1348.0	1714.4	13128	61350	10391	130 5/32
Support	1347.3	1705.6	13112	61304	10345	130 3/32
Support	1342.0	1692.4	13069	60550	10274	129 29/32
Support	1333.5	1671.0	12999	59329	10158	129 20/32

21 Feb

Good morning for 2-21

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, last at +.17. The Treasury will auction 35B in 2 yr. notes with results at 12:00. The USDA releases export inspections at 10:00. Today is expiration for March crude oil as April becomes lead contract.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLJ	TYH
21-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1361.25	1737.50	13199	64675	10450	131 2/32
Low	1353.00	1718.60	13116	63525	10255	130 19/32
Close	1359.75	1725.90	13159	64175	10360	130 29/32

Resist	1374.6	1768.1	13333	66536	10766	131 26/32
Resist	1369.5	1756.4	13282	65825	10645	131 17/32
Resist	1366.3	1749.2	13250	65386	10571	131 11/32
Resist**	1366.3	1746.2	13241	65275	10550	131 10/32
Resist	1363.0	1736.1	13200	64725	10455	131 4/32
Pivot	1358.0	1727.3	13158	64125	10355	130 27/32
Mid Point*	-1357.1	-1728.1	-13158	-64100	-10353	-130 27/32
Support	1354.8	1717.2	13117	63575	10260	130 21/32
Support**	1349.8	1708.4	13075	62975	10160	130 12/32
Support	1347.9	1706.9	13065	62814	10134	130 10/32
Support	1344.8	1699.7	13033	62375	10060	130 4/32
Support	1339.7	1688.0	12982	61664	9939	129 27/32

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLJ	TYH
20-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Weekly
High	1361.25	1739.20	13285	64675	10450	131 24/32
Low	1334.25	1706.70	12975	62175	9946	130 19/32
Close	1359.75	1725.90	13159	64175	10360	130 29/32

Resist	1404.9	1791.8	13787	68720	11265	133 20/32
Resist	1388.3	1771.7	13595	67175	10954	132 29/32
Resist	1377.9	1759.3	13477	66220	10761	132 15/32
Resist**	1378.8	1756.4	13450	66175	10756	132 8/32
Resist	1369.3	1741.2	13304	65175	10558	131 18/32
Pivot	1351.8	1723.9	13140	63675	10252	131 3/32
Mid Point*	-1347.8	-1723.0	-13130	-63425	-10198	-131 6/32
Support	1342.3	1708.7	12994	62675	10054	130 13/32
Support**	1324.8	1691.4	12830	61175	9748	129 30/32
Support	1317.6	1686.6	12783	60630	9635	129 28/32
Support	1307.3	1674.2	12665	59675	9442	129 14/32
Support	1290.6	1654.1	12473	58130	9131	128 23/32

16 Feb

Good morning for 2-17

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be the Jan. CPI, expected +.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Core Rate, expected +.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, and at 9:00 will be Jan. LEI, expected +.5%.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLJ	TYH
17-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1357.25	1731.60	13161	63700	10301	131 23/32
Low	1334.25	1706.70	12975	62175	10118	130 26/32
Close	1354.75	1728.40	13063	63625	10264	130 31/32

Resist	1394.5	1771.9	13462	66167	10597	133 6/32
Resist	1380.3	1756.5	13347	65225	10484	132 20/32
Resist	1371.5	1747.0	13276	64642	10414	132 9/32
Resist**	1371.8	1747.1	13252	64692	10411	132 2/32
Resist	1363.3	1737.8	13158	64158	10337	131 17/32
Pivot	1348.8	1722.2	13066	63167	10228	131 5/32
Mid Point*	-1345.8	-1719.2	-13068	-62938	-10210	-131 9/32
Support	1340.3	1712.9	12972	62633	10154	130 20/32
Support**	1325.8	1697.3	12880	61642	10045	130 8/32
Support	1320.0	1691.3	12860	61233	10005	130 8/32
Support	1311.3	1681.8	12789	60650	9935	129 29/32
Support	1297.0	1666.4	12674	59708	9822	129 11/32

15 Feb

Good morning for 2-16

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be weekly Jobless Claims, expected +7K to 365K, Jan. Housing Starts, expected at 675K from 657K, Building Permits, expected at 680K from 671K, the Jan. PPI, expected +.4% m/m and and+4.2% y/y, Core Rate, expected +.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y, at 9:00 will be the Feb. Philly Fed Index, expected at 9.5 from 7.3, and at 9:30 will be the weekly nat gas stocks from the EIA, expected -120bcf.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLJ	TYH
16-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1358.00	1739.20	13192	63850	10290	131 24/32
Low	1338.00	1720.30	13045	62525	10096	131 6/32
Close	1342.25	1728.10	13063	62700	10214	131 18/32

Resist	1390.4	1769.8	13430	65994	10604	132 21/32
Resist	1378.0	1758.1	13339	65175	10484	132 10/32
Resist	1370.4	1750.9	13283	64669	10410	132 3/32
Resist**	1366.1	1748.1	13247	64350	10394	132 2/32
Resist	1354.2	1738.1	13155	63525	10304	131 26/32
Pivot	1346.1	1729.2	13100	63025	10200	131 16/32
Mid Point*	-1348.0	-1729.8	-13119	-63188	-10193	-131 15/32
Support	1334.2	1719.2	13008	62200	10110	131 8/32
Support**	1326.1	1710.3	12953	61700	10006	130 30/32
Support	1325.6	1708.6	12954	61706	9976	130 27/32
Support	1318.0	1701.4	12898	61200	9902	130 20/32
Support	1305.6	1689.7	12807	60381	9782	130 9/32

14 Feb

Good morning for 2-15

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be the Feb. Empire State Index, expected at 15.0 from 13.48, at 8:00 will be Dec. TIC Flows, at 8:15 will be Jan. Industrial Output, expected +.6%, Capacity Utilization, expected at 78.6 from 78.1, at 9:00 will be the Feb. NAHB Housing Index, expected at 26 from 25, and at 9:30 will be the weekly energy stocks from the EIA, crude expected +2.0M, gasoline expected +500K, distillates expected -1.5M. The minutes from the Jan. 24/25 FOMC meeting are released at 1:00. Today is expiration for march crude oil options.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLH	TYH
14-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1352.00	1729.90	13218	64050	10184	131 18/32
Low	1337.75	1713.80	13080	63150	10028	131 3/32
Close	1347.75	1717.70	13094	63350	10074	131 17/32

Resist	1375.1	1755.9	13441	65506	10436	132 10/32
Resist	1366.3	1746.0	13356	64950	10340	132 1/32
Resist	1360.8	1739.8	13303	64606	10280	131 27/32
Resist**	1360.1	1736.6	13269	64417	10251	131 28/32
Resist	1353.9	1727.1	13181	63883	10163	131 22/32
Pivot	1345.8	1720.5	13131	63517	10095	131 13/32
Mid Point*	-1344.9	-1721.9	-13149	-63600	-10106	-131 11/32
Support	1339.7	1711.0	13043	62983	10007	131 7/32
Support**	1331.6	1704.4	12993	62617	9939	130 30/32
Support	1328.9	1703.9	12995	62594	9932	130 26/32
Support	1323.5	1697.7	12942	62250	9872	130 20/32
Support	1314.7	1687.8	12857	61694	9776	130 11/32

13 Feb

Good morning for 2-14

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be Jan. Retail Sales, expected +.7%, Ex-autos, expected +.5%, Jan. Import Prices, expected +.3%, Export Prices, expected +.2%, and at 9:00 will be Dec. Business Inventories, expected +.5%.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLH	TYH
14-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1352.25	1735.40	13285	64350	10100	131 13/32
Low	1342.75	1717.70	13189	63275	9909	130 28/32
Close	1349.00	1724.90	13205	63950	10091	131 4/32

Resist	1367.6	1764.0	13440	66089	10409	132 9/32
Resist	1361.8	1753.1	13381	65425	10291	131 30/32
Resist	1358.1	1746.3	13344	65014	10218	131 24/32
Resist**	1357.5	1743.7	13322	64933	10224	131 21/32
Resist	1353.3	1734.3	13264	64442	10158	131 13/32
Pivot	1348.0	1726.0	13226	63858	10033	131 4/32
Mid Point*	-1347.5	-1726.6	-13237	-63813	-10005	-131 5/32
Support	1343.8	1716.6	13168	63367	9967	130 28/32
Support**	1338.5	1708.3	13130	62783	9842	130 19/32
Support	1336.9	1706.8	13130	62611	9791	130 17/32
Support	1333.3	1700.0	13093	62200	9718	130 11/32
Support	1327.4	1689.1	13034	61536	9600	130

13 Feb

Good morningfor 2-13

By Frank Lesh

There are no economic releases for today. The USDA releases export inspections at 10:00.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLH	TYH
13-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Weekly
High	1352.75	1755.50	13325	65200	10018	131 26/32
Low	1330.25	1706.40	13028	62825	9584	130 18/32
Close	1340.50	1725.30	13172	63175	9867	131 12/32

Resist	1389.2	1834.9	13806	69043	10720	133 27/32
Resist	1375.3	1804.6	13622	67575	10452	133 2/32
Resist	1366.7	1785.8	13509	66668	10286	132 19/32
Resist**	1363.7	1778.2	13472	66108	10257	132 16/32
Resist	1352.1	1751.7	13322	64642	10062	131 30/32
Pivot	1341.2	1729.1	13175	63733	9823	131 8/32
Mid Point*	-1341.5	-1731.0	-13177	-64013	-9801	-131 6/32
Support	1329.6	1702.6	13025	62267	9628	130 22/32
Support**	1318.7	1680.0	12878	61358	9389	130
Support	1316.3	1676.1	12844	61357	9316	129 25/32
Support	1307.8	1657.3	12731	60450	9150	129 10/32
Support	1293.8	1627.0	12547	58982	8882	128 17/32

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLH	TYH
13-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Weekly
High	1352.75	1755.50	13325	65200	10018	131 26/32
Low	1330.25	1706.40	13028	62825	9584	130 18/32
Close	1340.50	1725.30	13172	63175	9867	131 12/32

Resist	1389.2	1834.9	13806	69043	10720	133 27/32
Resist	1375.3	1804.6	13622	67575	10452	133 2/32
Resist	1366.7	1785.8	13509	66668	10286	132 19/32
Resist**	1363.7	1778.2	13472	66108	10257	132 16/32
Resist	1352.1	1751.7	13322	64642	10062	131 30/32
Pivot	1341.2	1729.1	13175	63733	9823	131 8/32
Mid Point*	-1341.5	-1731.0	-13177	-64013	-9801	-131 6/32
Support	1329.6	1702.6	13025	62267	9628	130 22/32
Support**	1318.7	1680.0	12878	61358	9389	130
Support	1316.3	1676.1	12844	61357	9316	129 25/32
Support	1307.8	1657.3	12731	60450	9150	129 10/32
Support	1293.8	1627.0	12547	58982	8882	128 17/32

09 Feb

Good morning for 2-10

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be Dec. International Trade, expected -48.3B, at 8:55 will be Preliminary Feb. Consumer Sentiment, expected at 74.0 from 75.0, and at 1:00 will be the Jan. Federal Budget, expected -50.0B.

Market	ESH	GCJ	EUH	CH	CLH	TYH
10-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1352.75	1755.50	13325	65200	10018	131 6/32
Low	1340.75	1728.10	13216	63275	9866	130 18/32
Close	1348.25	1741.20	13290	63700	9984	130 25/32

Resist	1372.2	1799.8	13501	68315	10264	132 6/32
Resist	1364.8	1782.9	13434	67125	10170	131 26/32
Resist	1360.2	1772.4	13392	66390	10112	131 18/32
Resist**	1359.3	1769.0	13386	65983	10108	131 15/32
Resist	1353.8	1755.1	13338	64842	10046	131 4/32
Pivot	1347.3	1741.6	13277	64058	9956	130 27/32
Mid Point*	-1346.8	-1741.8	-13271	-64238	-9942	-130 28/32
Support	1341.8	1727.7	13229	62917	9894	130 16/32
Support**	1335.3	1714.2	13168	62133	9804	130 7/32
Support	1333.3	1711.2	13149	62085	9772	130 6/32
Support	1328.8	1700.7	13107	61350	9714	129 30/32
Support	1321.3	1683.8	13040	60160	9620	129 18/32

09 Feb

Good morning for 2-9

By Frank Lesh

Today’s data at 7:30 will be weekly Jobless Claims, expected +3K to 370K, at 9:00 will be Dec. Wholesale Inventories, expected +.4%, Wholesale Sales, expected +.5%, and at 9:30 will be the weekly Nat gas stocks from the EIA, expected -87bcf. The Treasury will auction 16B in 30 yr. bonds with results at 12:00.

9-Feb	mini sp	gold	euro	corn	crude	ten yr
Daily
High	1348.25	1754.80	13290	64875	10009	131 7/32
Low	1338.25	1726.00	13222	63200	9810	130 28/32
Close	1347.00	1731.30	13253	64250	9871	131 3/32

Resist	1364.4	1801.4	13400	67585	10331	131 25/32
Resist	1358.3	1783.6	13358	66550	10208	131 18/32
Resist	1354.4	1772.6	13332	65910	10132	131 14/32
Resist**	1354.5	1766.2	13323	65783	10096	131 13/32
Resist	1350.8	1748.7	13288	65017	9983	131 8/32
Pivot	1344.5	1737.4	13255	64108	9897	131 2/32
Mid Point*	-1343.3	-1740.4	-13256	-64038	-9910	-131 2/32
Support	1340.8	1719.9	13220	63342	9784	130 29/32
Support**	1334.5	1708.6	13187	62433	9698	130 23/32
Support	1332.1	1708.2	13180	62165	9687	130 21/32
Support	1328.3	1697.2	13154	61525	9611	130 17/32
Support	1322.1	1679.4	13112	60490	9488	130 10/32

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